Scottsdale Housing Market Update: Why "Buyer's Market" Doesn't Apply Here
Everyone keeps saying it's a buyer's market in Phoenix, and that there's time to take it slow. The actual numbers were pulled this week, and Scottsdale is telling a very different story. If you're buying or selling here this fall, here's what you need to see, from Shay Noonan, Realtor and team lead at The One Team Scottsdale, who has sold real estate here for over 13 years.
It's easy to see why people assume otherwise — homes sitting online, price drops, headlines saying the median home in Scottsdale takes 62 days to sell. That sounds slow. But look closer, and the story flips.
The Index That Actually Tells the Story
The Cromford Market Index is the tool used to read this. A score of 100 means the market is balanced. Anything over 110 is a seller's market. Anything under 90 is a buyer's market.
Area | Cromford Index (as of Sept 27) | Market Type |
Scottsdale | 156.6 (up from 136.8 a year ago) | Strong seller's market |
City of Phoenix | 106.9 (down from 117.2 last month) | Balanced |
Buckeye / Queen Creek | ~51 | True buyer's market |
As of September 27th, Scottsdale is at 156.6 — a year ago it was 136.8, so Scottsdale isn't just a seller's market, it's getting stronger. Compare that to the city of Phoenix, which is at 106.9 (a balanced market) and actually dropped from 117.2 just last month. Out in places like Buckeye and Queen Creek, the index is sitting around 51 — that's a true buyer's market.
So when the news says it's a buyer's market in Phoenix, they're not wrong — for a lot of the Valley. They're just not talking about Scottsdale.
Why Scottsdale Plays by Different Rules
A national or Valley-wide headline is usually describing the whole country or the whole metro area. Scottsdale just doesn't perform the way those markets do, and there's a big reason that rarely gets mentioned: Scottsdale is landlocked.
It's surrounded by Phoenix, Paradise Valley, the Salt River Pima-Maricopa Indian Community, Fountain Hills, and the Tonto National Forest, and a big chunk of North Scottsdale is protected desert inside the McDowell Sonoran Preserve. That means there's no building outward the way places like Buckeye and Queen Creek can. Builders out there can keep adding brand-new homes, and that extra supply keeps prices in check. In Scottsdale, there's just not a lot of new building happening — if anything, homes worth $1.5 million are being torn down to build homes that sell for $4.5 million. That tells you exactly how much people want to live here.
The Numbers Behind the Shift
Metric | Now | A Year / Month Ago |
Median days on market | 62 days | 76 days (year ago) |
Median days to go under contract | 26 days | 41 days (last month) |
Homes for sale | Fewer | Than a year ago |
Median sales price (trailing 12 months) | $1.225M | Up 4.7% year over year |
Homes are actually selling faster, not slower. The median home is going under contract in 26 days — last month it was 41. There are also fewer homes for sale than a year ago, and the median sales price over the last 12 months is $1.225 million, up 4.7% from last year.
An Honest Caveat: It's Not Every Home
Not every home is getting multiple offers, because that's simply not true. On average, homes in Scottsdale are selling for about 97% of list price, and about one in four listings ends without selling at all.
So where is the strength actually coming from? Two places: ultra-high luxury, and homes that are priced right. Sellers who don't price properly aren't winning in this market — their homes are the ones sitting. But when a home is priced right, it moves. Just over a week ago, a multiple-offer situation played out in the 85254 zip code near Scottsdale Road and Carefree Highway — the buyers were paying cash, and they still lost out. The home sold over list price. That's not happening on every home, but multiple-offer situations have come up in Scottsdale more times than can be counted on one hand over just the last two months.
Why Interest Rate Headlines Don't Hit the Same Here
Everyone is talking about interest rates right now, but Scottsdale plays different. This isn't a heavily financed market in the way much of the country is, and even when the broader economy has some weak spots, a lot of buyers in Scottsdale are still in a strong financial position. Rate headlines just don't land here the way they hit the rest of the Valley.
What This Actually Means for You
If buying: on some homes, there's room to negotiate. On others, moving fast with a strong offer is the only way to win it. The trick is knowing which one is being looked at.
If selling: this is a great market, but only with the right price. Overprice it, and that home becomes one of the ones sitting for months.
For a deeper look at exactly which Scottsdale neighborhoods are seeing the strongest competition right now — and how to shop them without losing — there's a full breakdown in this companion post on Scottsdale's 3 hidden seller's markets.
Watch the Full Breakdown
Buying or Selling in Scottsdale This Fall?
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Shay Noonan, Realtor and Team Lead, The One Team Scottsdale
Frequently Asked Questions
Is Scottsdale a buyer's market right now? No. As of late September, Scottsdale's Cromford Market Index sits at 156.6, well into seller's market territory (anything over 110), and it has strengthened from 136.8 a year earlier. |
Why is Scottsdale's market so different from the rest of the Phoenix Valley? Scottsdale is largely landlocked, bordered by Phoenix, Paradise Valley, tribal land, Fountain Hills, and protected desert in the McDowell Sonoran Preserve, which limits new home construction compared to outlying areas like Buckeye and Queen Creek. |
Are homes selling faster or slower in Scottsdale this year? Faster. The median home is going under contract in about 26 days, down from 41 days the previous month, and overall days on market dropped from 76 a year ago to 62 now. |
Is every home in Scottsdale getting multiple offers? No. Homes sell for about 97% of list price on average, and roughly one in four listings doesn't sell at all. The strongest activity is concentrated in ultra-high luxury homes and properly priced listings. |
Do rising interest rates affect the Scottsdale market the way they affect the rest of the country? Less so. Scottsdale is not a heavily finance-dependent market, and many buyers here remain in a strong financial position even when broader economic conditions soften, which helps insulate local activity from national rate headlines. |
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